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Sun 29 Nov · 14:05 UK · GW12 · model pl-dc-v2

Crystal Palace v Hull City

The Onside model's call for Gameweek 12, from expected goals of 1.32 to 1.30. Recorded before kick-off and graded in public.
CRY win
33%
Draw
29%
HUL win
38%
Score pick
1–1
most likely 1–1
QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Crystal Palace vs Hull City?

The Onside model makes Hull City the more likely winner of Crystal Palace vs Hull City in Gameweek 12: Crystal Palace 33%, draw 29%, Hull City 38%. The score pick is Crystal Palace 1–1 Hull City, and the single most probable scoreline is 1–1. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

CRY goals down, HUL goals across

CRY ↓HUL 0HUL 1HUL 2HUL 3HUL 4HUL 5
CRY 08.8%7.9%6.1%2.7%0.9%0.2%
CRY 18.1%14.0%8.1%3.5%1.1%0.3%
CRY 26.4%8.3%5.4%2.3%0.8%0.2%
CRY 32.8%3.6%2.4%1.0%0.3%0.1%
CRY 40.9%1.2%0.8%0.3%0.1%0.0%
CRY 50.2%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.5%.

Your call
AI calls
1–1
Your call
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locks Sun 14:05 UK
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.32 — 1.30
★ MODE
1–1
14.0%
0–0
8.8%
2–1
8.3%
1–0
8.1%
1–2
8.1%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
49%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
55%

Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Crystal Palace
Attack ranks #14 and defence #19 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.
Hull City
Attack ranks #15, defence #15. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.32–1.30.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

GW12 · TEAM NEWS

Predicted line-ups & team news

Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.

Crystal Palace
5-4-1
GK
Benitez
DEF
Mitchell, Richards, Canvot, Khalaili, Disasi
MID
Wharton, Kamada, Yeremy, McNeil
FWD
Strand Larsen
  • Mateta — Suspended until 2 Dec
  • Sarr — Groin injury - Expected back 8 Nov
  • Tomiyasu — Calf injury - Expected back 8 Nov
  • Chadi Riad — Knee injury - Unknown return date
  • Uche — has returned to Getafe CF
TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL CRY LINE-UP →
Hull City
5-4-1
GK
Tzolakis
DEF
Ajayi, Coyle, Egan, Giles, Mendy
MID
Slater, Belloumi, Stroud, Iroegbunam
FWD
McBurnie
  • Targett — Ankle injury - Unknown return date
  • Crooks — Suspended until 22 Nov
  • Hughes — Groin injury - Unknown return date
  • Morita — Groin injury - Unknown return date
  • Matazo — Knee injury - Unknown return date
  • Gourna-Douath 75% — Calf injury - 75% chance of playing
  • Gyabi 75% — Thigh injury - 75% chance of playing
TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL HUL LINE-UP →
Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates in the prediction league.

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW23Hull City vs Crystal Palace prediction→All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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