Who will win Chelsea vs Newcastle United?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
CHE goals down, NEW goals across
| CHE ↓ | NEW 0 | NEW 1 | NEW 2 | NEW 3 | NEW 4 | NEW 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHE 0 | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| CHE 1 | 4.1% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| CHE 2 | 5.5% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| CHE 3 | 4.0% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| CHE 4 | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| CHE 5 | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 2.9%.
Chelsea v Newcastle United
Onside's model gives Chelsea a 45% chance of beating Newcastle United in Gameweek 19, with 24% on the draw and 31% on an away win. The score prediction is Chelsea 2–1 Newcastle United, from expected goals of 2.18 to 1.58. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).