QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Manchester City vs Tottenham Hotspur?

The Onside model makes Manchester City the more likely winner of Manchester City vs Tottenham Hotspur in Gameweek 19: Manchester City 65%, draw 22%, Tottenham Hotspur 13%. The score pick is Manchester City 20 Tottenham Hotspur, and the single most probable scoreline is 20. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

MCI goals down, TOT goals across

MCITOT 0TOT 1TOT 2TOT 3TOT 4TOT 5
MCI 05.2%2.7%1.6%0.5%0.1%0.0%
MCI 18.6%9.5%3.8%1.1%0.2%0.0%
MCI 211.0%9.7%4.3%1.3%0.3%0.0%
MCI 38.4%7.4%3.3%1.0%0.2%0.0%
MCI 44.8%4.2%1.9%0.5%0.1%0.0%
MCI 52.2%1.9%0.9%0.3%0.1%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (20); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 2.9%.

Sun 3 Jan · 16:30 UK · GW19 · model pl-dc-v2

Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur

Onside's model gives Manchester City a 65% chance of beating Tottenham Hotspur in Gameweek 19, with 22% on the draw and 13% on an away win. The score prediction is Manchester City 20 Tottenham Hotspur, from expected goals of 2.28 to 0.88. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Manchester City
65%
Draw
22%
Tottenham Hotspur
13%
Model pick: 20 · most probable 20
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locks Sun 16:30
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
2.280.88
★ MODE
20
11.0%
21
9.7%
11
9.5%
10
8.6%
30
8.4%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
61%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
54%

Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Manchester City
Attack ranks #1 and defence #2 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.09 on goal rate.
Tottenham Hotspur
Attack ranks #12, defence #12. Expected goals in this fixture: 2.280.88.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW25Spurs vs Man City predictionAll predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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Manchester City vs Tottenham Hotspur Prediction — GW19 Score