Who will win Everton vs Chelsea?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
EVE goals down, CHE goals across
| EVE ↓ | CHE 0 | CHE 1 | CHE 2 | CHE 3 | CHE 4 | CHE 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EVE 0 | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| EVE 1 | 5.6% | 12.4% | 8.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| EVE 2 | 5.0% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| EVE 3 | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| EVE 4 | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| EVE 5 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.0%.
Everton v Chelsea
Onside's model gives Everton a 39% chance of beating Chelsea in Gameweek 7, with 26% on the draw and 35% on an away win. The score prediction is Everton 1–2 Chelsea, from expected goals of 1.44 to 1.59. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 60 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).
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