QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Chelsea vs Everton?

The Onside model makes Chelsea the more likely winner of Chelsea vs Everton in Gameweek 36: Chelsea 40%, draw 28%, Everton 32%. The score pick is Chelsea 21 Everton, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

CHE goals down, EVE goals across

CHEEVE 0EVE 1EVE 2EVE 3EVE 4EVE 5
CHE 07.3%5.5%4.0%1.5%0.4%0.1%
CHE 18.5%12.8%6.6%2.6%0.7%0.2%
CHE 28.2%9.5%5.5%2.1%0.6%0.1%
CHE 34.6%5.3%3.1%1.2%0.3%0.1%
CHE 41.9%2.2%1.3%0.5%0.1%0.0%
CHE 50.6%0.7%0.4%0.2%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.8%.

Sat 15 May · 15:00 UK · GW36 · model pl-dc-v2

Chelsea v Everton

Onside's model gives Chelsea a 40% chance of beating Everton in Gameweek 36, with 28% on the draw and 32% on an away win. The score prediction is Chelsea 21 Everton, from expected goals of 1.66 to 1.16. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Chelsea
40%
Draw
28%
Everton
32%
Model pick: 21 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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locks Sat 14:00
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.661.16
★ MODE
11
12.8%
21
9.5%
10
8.5%
20
8.2%
00
7.3%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
54%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
57%

Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Chelsea
Attack ranks #4 and defence #15 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.09 on goal rate.
Everton
Attack ranks #15, defence #4. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.661.16.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW7Everton vs Chelsea predictionAll predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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Chelsea vs Everton Prediction — GW36 Score & Win Probability