QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Leeds United vs Manchester United?

The Onside model makes Leeds United the more likely winner of Leeds United vs Manchester United in Gameweek 7: Leeds United 46%, draw 27%, Manchester United 27%. The score pick is Leeds United 11 Manchester United, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

LEE goals down, MUN goals across

LEEMUN 0MUN 1MUN 2MUN 3MUN 4MUN 5
LEE 08.3%7.6%6.1%2.7%0.9%0.2%
LEE 17.8%13.8%8.2%3.6%1.2%0.3%
LEE 26.3%8.3%5.5%2.4%0.8%0.2%
LEE 32.8%3.7%2.5%1.1%0.4%0.1%
LEE 41.0%1.3%0.8%0.4%0.1%0.0%
LEE 50.3%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.5%.

Sun 18 Oct · 14:00 UK · GW7 · model pl-dc-v2

Leeds United v Manchester United

Onside's model gives Leeds United a 46% chance of beating Manchester United in Gameweek 7, with 27% on the draw and 27% on an away win. The score prediction is Leeds United 11 Manchester United, from expected goals of 1.35 to 1.33. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Leeds United
46%
Draw
27%
Manchester United
27%
Model pick: 11 · most probable 11
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SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.351.33
★ MODE
11
13.8%
00
8.3%
21
8.3%
12
8.2%
10
7.8%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
50%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
56%

Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Leeds United
Attack ranks #11 and defence #5 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.09 on goal rate.
Manchester United
Attack ranks #6, defence #8. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.351.33.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW36Man Utd vs Leeds predictionAll predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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Leeds United vs Manchester United Prediction — GW7 Score