What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Aston Villa?

The model's score pick is Arsenal 1–0 Aston Villa; the single most probable scoreline is 1–0.

How accurate are Onside match predictions?

Every gameweek we publish log-loss, RPS and accuracy against the bookmaker opening and closing lines at onsidearena.com/api/predict/receipts — the model is evaluated walk-forward with no hindsight.

Sat 17 Apr · 15:00 UK · GW32 · model pl-dc-v2

Arsenal v Aston Villa

The Onside model's call for Gameweek 32, from expected goals of 1.88 to 0.68. Recorded before kick-off and graded in public.

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ARS win

56%

Draw

27%

AVL win

17%

Score pick

1–0

most likely 1–0

QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Arsenal vs Aston Villa?

The Onside model makes Arsenal the more likely winner of Arsenal vs Aston Villa in Gameweek 32: Arsenal 56%, draw 27%, Aston Villa 17%. The score pick is Arsenal 1–0 Aston Villa, and the single most probable scoreline is 1–0. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

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ARS 56%

DRAW 27%

AVL 17%

Every scoreline, priced

ARS goals down, AVL goals across

ARS ↓	AVL 0	AVL 1	AVL 2	AVL 3	AVL 4	AVL 5
ARS 0	8.9%	4.1%	1.8%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
ARS 1	13.3%	11.1%	3.4%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%
ARS 2	13.7%	9.3%	3.2%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%
ARS 3	8.6%	5.8%	2.0%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
ARS 4	4.0%	2.7%	0.9%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
ARS 5	1.5%	1.0%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (2–0); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.3%.

Your call

Arsenal

Aston Villa

AI calls

1–0

Your call

–

locks Sat 15:00 UK

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

1.88 — 0.68

★ MODE

2–0

13.7%

1–0

13.3%

1–1

11.1%

2–1

9.3%

0–0

8.9%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

47%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

43%

Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way

Arsenal

Attack ranks #4 and defence #1 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.

Aston Villa

Attack ranks #10, defence #9. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.88–0.68.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

GW32 · TEAM NEWS

Predicted line-ups & team news

Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.

Arsenal

4-5-1