What is the predicted score for Everton vs Bournemouth?

The model's score pick is Everton 1–1 Bournemouth; the single most probable scoreline is 1–1.

How accurate are Onside match predictions?

Every gameweek we publish log-loss, RPS and accuracy against the bookmaker opening and closing lines at onsidearena.com/api/predict/receipts — the model is evaluated walk-forward with no hindsight.

Sat 17 Apr · 15:00 UK · GW32 · model pl-dc-v2

Everton v Bournemouth

The Onside model's call for Gameweek 32, from expected goals of 1.20 to 1.11. Recorded before kick-off and graded in public.

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EVE win

38%

Draw

30%

BOU win

32%

Score pick

1–1

most likely 1–1

QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Everton vs Bournemouth?

The Onside model makes Everton the more likely winner of Everton vs Bournemouth in Gameweek 32: Everton 38%, draw 30%, Bournemouth 32%. The score pick is Everton 1–1 Bournemouth, and the single most probable scoreline is 1–1. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

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EVE 38%

DRAW 30%

BOU 32%

Every scoreline, priced

EVE goals down, BOU goals across

EVE ↓	BOU 0	BOU 1	BOU 2	BOU 3	BOU 4	BOU 5
EVE 0	11.5%	9.4%	6.1%	2.3%	0.6%	0.1%
EVE 1	10.3%	14.8%	7.4%	2.7%	0.8%	0.2%
EVE 2	7.1%	7.9%	4.4%	1.6%	0.5%	0.1%
EVE 3	2.8%	3.2%	1.8%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%
EVE 4	0.9%	0.9%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%
EVE 5	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.3%.

Your call

Everton

Bournemouth

AI calls

1–1

Your call

–

locks Sat 15:00 UK

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

1.20 — 1.11

★ MODE

1–1

14.8%

0–0

11.5%

1–0

10.3%

0–1

9.4%

2–1

7.9%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

41%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

48%

Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way

Everton

Attack ranks #16 and defence #5 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.

Bournemouth

Attack ranks #7, defence #11. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.20–1.11.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

GW32 · TEAM NEWS

Predicted line-ups & team news

Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.

Everton

4-5-1