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Sat 17 Apr · 15:00 UK · GW32 · model pl-dc-v2

Hull City v Coventry City

The Onside model's call for Gameweek 32, from expected goals of 1.49 to 1.06. Recorded before kick-off and graded in public.
HUL win
47%
Draw
28%
COV win
25%
Score pick
1–0
most likely 1–1
QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Hull City vs Coventry City?

The Onside model makes Hull City the more likely winner of Hull City vs Coventry City in Gameweek 32: Hull City 47%, draw 28%, Coventry City 25%. The score pick is Hull City 1–0 Coventry City, and the single most probable scoreline is 1–1. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

HUL goals down, COV goals across

HUL ↓COV 0COV 1COV 2COV 3COV 4COV 5
HUL 09.3%6.8%4.4%1.5%0.4%0.1%
HUL 110.2%13.8%6.5%2.3%0.6%0.1%
HUL 28.7%9.2%4.9%1.7%0.5%0.1%
HUL 34.3%4.6%2.4%0.8%0.2%0.0%
HUL 41.6%1.7%0.9%0.3%0.1%0.0%
HUL 50.5%0.5%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.5%.

Your call
AI calls
1–0
Your call
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locks Sat 15:00 UK
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.49 — 1.06
★ MODE
1–1
13.8%
1–0
10.2%
0–0
9.3%
2–1
9.2%
2–0
8.7%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
47%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
52%

Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Hull City
Attack ranks #15 and defence #15 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.
Coventry City
Attack ranks #17, defence #18. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.49–1.06.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

GW32 · TEAM NEWS

Predicted line-ups & team news

Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.

Hull City
5-4-1
GK
Tzolakis
DEF
Ajayi, Coyle, Egan, Giles, Mendy
MID
Slater, Belloumi, Stroud, Iroegbunam
FWD
McBurnie
  • Targett — Ankle injury - Unknown return date
  • Crooks — Suspended until 22 Nov
  • Hughes — Groin injury - Unknown return date
  • Matazo — Knee injury - Unknown return date
  • Gyabi — Thigh injury - Unknown return date
  • Butland 50% — Arm injury - 50% chance of playing
  • Gourna-Douath 75% — Calf injury - 75% chance of playing
TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL HUL LINE-UP →
Coventry City
4-4-2
GK
Rushworth
DEF
Dasilva, Pinnock, van Ewijk, Mfuni
MID
Rudoni, Yirenkyi, Grimes, Sakamoto
FWD
Thomas-Asante, Cherif
  • Dovin — not included in squad.
  • Amenda — Calf injury - Unknown return date
  • Woolfenden — Knee injury - Unknown return date
  • Wright — Thigh injury - Unknown return date
  • Eccles — Ankle injury - Unknown return date
  • Thomas 50% — Calf injury - 50% chance of playing
  • Onyeka 50% — Groin injury - 50% chance of playing
TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL COV LINE-UP →
Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates in the prediction league.

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW2Coventry City vs Hull City prediction→All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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