QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Brighton vs Chelsea?

The Onside model makes Brighton the more likely winner of Brighton vs Chelsea in Gameweek 32: Brighton 56%, draw 22%, Chelsea 22%. The score pick is Brighton 21 Chelsea, and the single most probable scoreline is 21. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

BHA goals down, CHE goals across

BHACHE 0CHE 1CHE 2CHE 3CHE 4CHE 5
BHA 03.3%2.5%2.6%1.3%0.5%0.1%
BHA 14.4%8.9%5.9%2.9%1.1%0.3%
BHA 26.1%9.0%6.6%3.3%1.2%0.4%
BHA 34.6%6.8%5.0%2.5%0.9%0.3%
BHA 42.6%3.8%2.8%1.4%0.5%0.2%
BHA 51.2%1.7%1.3%0.6%0.2%0.1%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (21); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 3.2%.

Sat 17 Apr · 15:00 UK · GW32 · model pl-dc-v2

Brighton v Chelsea

Onside's model gives Brighton a 56% chance of beating Chelsea in Gameweek 32, with 22% on the draw and 22% on an away win. The score prediction is Brighton 21 Chelsea, from expected goals of 2.27 to 1.48. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Brighton
56%
Draw
22%
Chelsea
22%
Model pick: 21 · most probable 21
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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locks Sat 14:00
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
2.271.48
★ MODE
21
9.0%
11
8.9%
31
6.8%
22
6.6%
20
6.1%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
72%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
70%

Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Brighton
Attack ranks #2 and defence #6 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.09 on goal rate.
Chelsea
Attack ranks #4, defence #15. Expected goals in this fixture: 2.271.48.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW2Chelsea vs Brighton predictionAll predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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Brighton vs Chelsea Prediction — GW32 Score & Win Probability