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Sat 16 Jan · 15:00 UK · GW21 · model pl-dc-v2

Bournemouth v Ipswich Town

The Onside model's call for Gameweek 21, from expected goals of 2.19 to 1.15. Recorded before kick-off and graded in public.
BOU win
59%
Draw
22%
IPS win
19%
Score pick
2–1
most likely 2–1
QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Bournemouth vs Ipswich Town?

The Onside model makes Bournemouth the more likely winner of Bournemouth vs Ipswich Town in Gameweek 21: Bournemouth 59%, draw 22%, Ipswich Town 19%. The score pick is Bournemouth 2–1 Ipswich Town, and the single most probable scoreline is 2–1. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

BOU goals down, IPS goals across

BOU ↓IPS 0IPS 1IPS 2IPS 3IPS 4IPS 5
BOU 04.6%3.0%2.3%0.9%0.3%0.1%
BOU 16.7%10.0%5.1%2.0%0.6%0.1%
BOU 28.5%9.8%5.6%2.1%0.6%0.1%
BOU 36.2%7.1%4.1%1.6%0.4%0.1%
BOU 43.4%3.9%2.2%0.9%0.2%0.1%
BOU 51.5%1.7%1.0%0.4%0.1%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 2.5%.

Your call
AI calls
2–1
Your call
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locks Sat 15:00 UK
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
2.19 — 1.15
★ MODE
1–1
10.0%
2–1
9.8%
2–0
8.5%
3–1
7.1%
1–0
6.7%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
65%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
62%

Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Bournemouth
Attack ranks #7 and defence #11 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.
Ipswich Town
Attack ranks #12, defence #20. Expected goals in this fixture: 2.19–1.15.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

GW21 · TEAM NEWS

Predicted line-ups & team news

Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.

Bournemouth
4-5-1
GK
Petrović
DEF
Truffert, Hill, Silva, Smith
MID
Rayan, Tavernier, Adams, Christie, Kluivert
FWD
Evanilson
  • Scott — Thigh injury - Expected back 21 Nov
  • Sanchez — Ankle injury - Unknown return date
  • Milosavljević — Thigh injury - Expected back 31 Oct
  • J.Araujo — Thigh injury - Unknown return date
  • Tóth.A — Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL BOU LINE-UP →
Ipswich Town
4-5-1
GK
Walton
DEF
O'Shea, Davis, Diop, Ouattara
MID
Enciso, Palacios, Florentino, Fatawu, Philogene
FWD
Emersonn
  • Lukić 75% — Groin injury - 75% chance of playing
TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL IPS LINE-UP →
Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates in the prediction league.

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW10Ipswich Town vs Bournemouth prediction→All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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