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Sat 16 Jan · 15:00 UK · GW21 · model pl-dc-v2

Newcastle United v Fulham

The Onside model's call for Gameweek 21, from expected goals of 1.51 to 1.09. Recorded before kick-off and graded in public.
NEW win
43%
Draw
28%
FUL win
29%
Score pick
1–0
most likely 1–1
QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Newcastle United vs Fulham?

The Onside model makes Newcastle United the more likely winner of Newcastle United vs Fulham in Gameweek 21: Newcastle United 43%, draw 28%, Fulham 29%. The score pick is Newcastle United 1–0 Fulham, and the single most probable scoreline is 1–1. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

NEW goals down, FUL goals across

NEW ↓FUL 0FUL 1FUL 2FUL 3FUL 4FUL 5
NEW 08.9%6.6%4.4%1.6%0.4%0.1%
NEW 19.7%13.7%6.7%2.4%0.7%0.1%
NEW 28.5%9.2%5.0%1.8%0.5%0.1%
NEW 34.3%4.7%2.5%0.9%0.3%0.1%
NEW 41.6%1.8%1.0%0.3%0.1%0.0%
NEW 50.5%0.5%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.6%.

Your call
AI calls
1–0
Your call
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locks Sat 15:00 UK
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.51 — 1.09
★ MODE
1–1
13.7%
1–0
9.7%
2–1
9.2%
0–0
8.9%
2–0
8.5%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
48%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
53%

Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Newcastle United
Attack ranks #9 and defence #17 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.
Fulham
Attack ranks #18, defence #10. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.51–1.09.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

GW21 · TEAM NEWS

Predicted line-ups & team news

Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.

Newcastle United
4-5-1
GK
Horníček
DEF
Hall, Dedić, Schär, Burn
MID
Barnes, N.Gonzalez, Willock, J.Murphy, Elanga
FWD
Osula
  • J.Ramsey — Suspended until 21 Nov
  • Jaouen — Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
  • Livramento — Knee injury - Unknown return date
  • Joelinton — Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
  • L.Miley 75% — Muscular injury - 75% chance of playing
  • Fernandez-Pardo 75% — Illness - 75% chance of playing
TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL NEW LINE-UP →
Fulham
4-5-1
GK
Leno
DEF
Bassey, Affengruber, Robinson, Castagne
MID
Iwobi, King, Bobb, Charles, Berge
FWD
Gonzalo

No injury or suspension flags.

TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL FUL LINE-UP →
Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates in the prediction league.

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW10Fulham vs Newcastle prediction→All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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