Who will win Chelsea vs Sunderland?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
CHE goals down, SUN goals across
| CHE ↓ | SUN 0 | SUN 1 | SUN 2 | SUN 3 | SUN 4 | SUN 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHE 0 | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| CHE 1 | 6.7% | 10.0% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| CHE 2 | 8.5% | 9.8% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| CHE 3 | 6.2% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| CHE 4 | 3.4% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| CHE 5 | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 2.5%.
Chelsea v Sunderland
Onside's model gives Chelsea a 48% chance of beating Sunderland in Gameweek 21, with 25% on the draw and 27% on an away win. The score prediction is Chelsea 2–1 Sunderland, from expected goals of 2.19 to 1.15. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).