QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Sunderland vs Chelsea?

The Onside model makes Sunderland the more likely winner of Sunderland vs Chelsea in Gameweek 10: Sunderland 39%, draw 26%, Chelsea 35%. The score pick is Sunderland 12 Chelsea, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

SUN goals down, CHE goals across

SUNCHE 0CHE 1CHE 2CHE 3CHE 4CHE 5
SUN 05.3%6.2%6.8%4.1%1.9%0.7%
SUN 14.4%11.5%9.3%5.7%2.6%0.9%
SUN 23.9%7.0%6.4%3.9%1.8%0.7%
SUN 31.8%3.2%2.9%1.8%0.8%0.3%
SUN 40.6%1.1%1.0%0.6%0.3%0.1%
SUN 50.2%0.3%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.4%.

Sat 7 Nov · 15:00 UK · GW10 · model pl-dc-v2

Sunderland v Chelsea

Onside's model gives Sunderland a 39% chance of beating Chelsea in Gameweek 10, with 26% on the draw and 35% on an away win. The score prediction is Sunderland 12 Chelsea, from expected goals of 1.37 to 1.83. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Sunderland
39%
Draw
26%
Chelsea
35%
Model pick: 12 · most probable 11
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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locks Sat 15:00
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.371.83
★ MODE
11
11.5%
12
9.3%
21
7.0%
02
6.8%
22
6.4%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
62%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
64%

Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Sunderland
Attack ranks #16 and defence #17 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.09 on goal rate.
Chelsea
Attack ranks #4, defence #15. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.371.83.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW21Chelsea vs Sunderland predictionAll predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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