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Sat 20 Mar · 15:00 UK · GW30 · model pl-dc-v2

Brighton v Coventry City

The Onside model's call for Gameweek 30, from expected goals of 2.63 to 0.74. Recorded before kick-off and graded in public.
BHA win
75%
Draw
16%
COV win
9%
Score pick
2–0
most likely 2–0
QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Brighton vs Coventry City?

The Onside model makes Brighton the more likely winner of Brighton vs Coventry City in Gameweek 30: Brighton 75%, draw 16%, Coventry City 9%. The score pick is Brighton 2–0 Coventry City, and the single most probable scoreline is 2–0. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

BHA goals down, COV goals across

BHA ↓COV 0COV 1COV 2COV 3COV 4COV 5
BHA 04.2%1.7%0.9%0.2%0.0%0.0%
BHA 18.2%7.5%2.5%0.6%0.1%0.0%
BHA 211.9%8.8%3.3%0.8%0.2%0.0%
BHA 310.4%7.7%2.9%0.7%0.1%0.0%
BHA 46.8%5.1%1.9%0.5%0.1%0.0%
BHA 53.6%2.7%1.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (2–0); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 5.0%.

Your call
AI calls
2–0
Your call
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locks Sat 15:00 UK
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
2.63 — 0.74
★ MODE
2–0
11.9%
3–0
10.4%
2–1
8.8%
1–0
8.2%
3–1
7.7%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
65%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
50%

Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Brighton
Attack ranks #1 and defence #2 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.
Coventry City
Attack ranks #17, defence #18. Expected goals in this fixture: 2.63–0.74.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

GW30 · TEAM NEWS

Predicted line-ups & team news

Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.

Brighton
5-4-1
GK
Verbruggen
DEF
Vuskovic, De Cuyper, Boscagli, Dunk, F.Kadıoğlu
MID
Gomez, Groß, Ayari, Andrés
FWD
Kostoulas
  • Struijk — Hamstring injury - Expected back 8 Nov
  • Yohanna — Unspecified injury - Expected back 22 Nov
  • Mitoma — Hamstring injury - Expected back 22 Nov
  • Azeez — Hamstring injury - Expected back 8 Nov
  • Tzimas — Knee injury - Unknown return date
  • F.Kadıoğlu 75% — Hip injury - 75% chance of playing
TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH
FULL BHA LINE-UP →
Coventry City
4-4-2
GK
Rushworth
DEF
Dasilva, Pinnock, van Ewijk, Mfuni
MID
Rudoni, Yirenkyi, Grimes, Sakamoto
FWD
Thomas-Asante, Cherif
  • Dovin — not included in squad.
  • Amenda — Calf injury - Unknown return date
  • Woolfenden — Knee injury - Unknown return date
  • Wright — Thigh injury - Unknown return date
  • Eccles — Ankle injury - Unknown return date
  • Thomas 50% — Calf injury - 50% chance of playing
  • Onyeka 50% — Groin injury - 50% chance of playing
TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL COV LINE-UP →
Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates in the prediction league.

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW4Coventry City vs Brighton prediction→All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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