QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Newcastle United vs Leeds United?

The Onside model makes Leeds United the more likely winner of Newcastle United vs Leeds United in Gameweek 30: Newcastle United 35%, draw 28%, Leeds United 37%. The score pick is Newcastle United 21 Leeds United, and the single most probable scoreline is 11. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

NEW goals down, LEE goals across

NEWLEE 0LEE 1LEE 2LEE 3LEE 4LEE 5
NEW 07.5%6.3%4.9%2.0%0.6%0.2%
NEW 18.0%13.2%7.5%3.1%1.0%0.2%
NEW 27.2%9.1%5.7%2.4%0.8%0.2%
NEW 33.7%4.6%2.9%1.2%0.4%0.1%
NEW 41.4%1.8%1.1%0.5%0.1%0.0%
NEW 50.4%0.5%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (11); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.7%.

Sat 20 Mar · 15:00 UK · GW30 · model pl-dc-v2

Newcastle United v Leeds United

Onside's model gives Newcastle United a 35% chance of beating Leeds United in Gameweek 30, with 28% on the draw and 37% on an away win. The score prediction is Newcastle United 21 Leeds United, from expected goals of 1.53 to 1.26. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Newcastle United
35%
Draw
28%
Leeds United
37%
Model pick: 21 · most probable 11
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SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.531.26
★ MODE
11
13.2%
21
9.1%
10
8.0%
00
7.5%
12
7.5%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
53%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
58%

Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Newcastle United
Attack ranks #7 and defence #16 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.09 on goal rate.
Leeds United
Attack ranks #11, defence #5. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.531.26.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW4Leeds vs Newcastle predictionAll predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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Newcastle United vs Leeds United Prediction — GW30 Score