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Sat 20 Mar · 15:00 UK · GW30 · model pl-dc-v2

Brentford v Bournemouth

The Onside model's call for Gameweek 30, from expected goals of 1.68 to 1.22. Recorded before kick-off and graded in public.
BRE win
48%
Draw
26%
BOU win
26%
Score pick
2–1
most likely 1–1
QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Brentford vs Bournemouth?

The Onside model makes Brentford the more likely winner of Brentford vs Bournemouth in Gameweek 30: Brentford 48%, draw 26%, Bournemouth 26%. The score pick is Brentford 2–1 Bournemouth, and the single most probable scoreline is 1–1. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

BRE goals down, BOU goals across

BRE ↓BOU 0BOU 1BOU 2BOU 3BOU 4BOU 5
BRE 06.9%5.4%4.1%1.7%0.5%0.1%
BRE 17.9%12.7%6.9%2.8%0.8%0.2%
BRE 27.8%9.5%5.8%2.3%0.7%0.2%
BRE 34.4%5.3%3.2%1.3%0.4%0.1%
BRE 41.8%2.2%1.3%0.5%0.2%0.0%
BRE 50.6%0.7%0.5%0.2%0.1%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.9%.

Your call
AI calls
2–1
Your call
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locks Sat 15:00 UK
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.68 — 1.22
★ MODE
1–1
12.7%
2–1
9.5%
1–0
7.9%
2–0
7.8%
0–0
6.9%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
55%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
59%

Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Brentford
Attack ranks #6 and defence #8 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.
Bournemouth
Attack ranks #7, defence #11. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.68–1.22.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

GW30 · TEAM NEWS

Predicted line-ups & team news

Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.

Brentford
3-6-1
GK
Kelleher
DEF
Ajer, Kayode, Van den Berg
MID
Lewis-Potter, Janelt, Schade, Jensen, O.Dango, M.Sangaré
FWD
Thiago
  • Furo — Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
  • Henry — Hip injury - Unknown return date
  • Carvalho — Knock - Expected back 23 Nov
  • Milambo — Knee injury - Unknown return date
  • Dasilva — Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL BRE LINE-UP →
Bournemouth
4-5-1
GK
Petrović
DEF
Truffert, Hill, Silva, Smith
MID
Rayan, Tavernier, Adams, Christie, Kluivert
FWD
Evanilson
  • Scott — Thigh injury - Expected back 21 Nov
  • Milosavljević — Thigh injury - Expected back 31 Oct
  • J.Araujo — Thigh injury - Unknown return date
  • Tóth.A — Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL BOU LINE-UP →
Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates in the prediction league.

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW4Bournemouth vs Brentford prediction→All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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