What is the predicted score for Manchester City vs Everton?

The model's score pick is Manchester City 1–0 Everton; the single most probable scoreline is 1–0.

How accurate are Onside match predictions?

Every gameweek we publish log-loss, RPS and accuracy against the bookmaker opening and closing lines at onsidearena.com/api/predict/receipts — the model is evaluated walk-forward with no hindsight.

Wed 3 Mar · 20:00 UK · GW28 · model pl-dc-v2

Manchester City v Everton

The Onside model's call for Gameweek 28, from expected goals of 1.79 to 0.77. Recorded before kick-off and graded in public.

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MCI win

57%

Draw

26%

EVE win

17%

Score pick

1–0

most likely 1–0

QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Manchester City vs Everton?

The Onside model makes Manchester City the more likely winner of Manchester City vs Everton in Gameweek 28: Manchester City 57%, draw 26%, Everton 17%. The score pick is Manchester City 1–0 Everton, and the single most probable scoreline is 1–0. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

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MCI 57%

DRAW 26%

EVE 17%

Every scoreline, priced

MCI goals down, EVE goals across

MCI ↓	EVE 0	EVE 1	EVE 2	EVE 3	EVE 4	EVE 5
MCI 0	9.0%	4.7%	2.3%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%
MCI 1	12.5%	12.0%	4.1%	1.1%	0.2%	0.0%
MCI 2	12.3%	9.5%	3.7%	1.0%	0.2%	0.0%
MCI 3	7.3%	5.7%	2.2%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%
MCI 4	3.3%	2.5%	1.0%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
MCI 5	1.2%	0.9%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–0); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.0%.

Your call

Manchester City

Everton

AI calls

1–0

Your call

–

locks Wed 20:00 UK

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

1.79 — 0.77

★ MODE

1–0

12.5%

2–0

12.3%

1–1

12.0%

2–1

9.5%

0–0

9.0%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

47%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

46%

Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way

Manchester City

Attack ranks #2 and defence #4 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.

Everton

Attack ranks #16, defence #5. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.79–0.77.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

GW28 · TEAM NEWS

Predicted line-ups & team news

Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.

Manchester City

4-5-1