Who will win Liverpool vs Aston Villa?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
LIV goals down, AVL goals across
| LIV ↓ | AVL 0 | AVL 1 | AVL 2 | AVL 3 | AVL 4 | AVL 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIV 0 | 7.0% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| LIV 1 | 9.5% | 11.8% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| LIV 2 | 10.2% | 9.9% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| LIV 3 | 6.4% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| LIV 4 | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| LIV 5 | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.3%.
Liverpool v Aston Villa
Onside's model gives Liverpool a 57% chance of beating Aston Villa in Gameweek 28, with 24% on the draw and 19% on an away win. The score prediction is Liverpool 1–0 Aston Villa, from expected goals of 1.89 to 0.98. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).