QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Arsenal vs Crystal Palace?

The Onside model makes Arsenal the more likely winner of Arsenal vs Crystal Palace in Gameweek 28: Arsenal 66%, draw 22%, Crystal Palace 12%. The score pick is Arsenal 20 Crystal Palace, and the single most probable scoreline is 20. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

ARS goals down, CRY goals across

ARSCRY 0CRY 1CRY 2CRY 3CRY 4CRY 5
ARS 05.5%2.2%1.1%0.2%0.0%0.0%
ARS 110.1%8.4%2.6%0.6%0.1%0.0%
ARS 213.2%9.0%3.1%0.7%0.1%0.0%
ARS 310.5%7.2%2.5%0.6%0.1%0.0%
ARS 46.3%4.3%1.5%0.3%0.1%0.0%
ARS 53.0%2.1%0.7%0.2%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (20); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 3.5%.

Wed 3 Mar · 20:00 UK · GW28 · model pl-dc-v2

Arsenal v Crystal Palace

Onside's model gives Arsenal a 66% chance of beating Crystal Palace in Gameweek 28, with 22% on the draw and 12% on an away win. The score prediction is Arsenal 20 Crystal Palace, from expected goals of 2.40 to 0.69. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.

Arsenal
66%
Draw
22%
Crystal Palace
12%
Model pick: 20 · most probable 20
OUR RECORD — MODEL RECEIPTS →
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locks Wed 20:00
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
2.400.69
★ MODE
20
13.2%
30
10.5%
10
10.1%
21
9.0%
11
8.4%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
60%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
46%

Model updated from 50 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Arsenal
Attack ranks #3 and defence #1 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.09 on goal rate.
Crystal Palace
Attack ranks #13, defence #18. Expected goals in this fixture: 2.400.69.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW17Crystal Palace vs Arsenal predictionAll predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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Arsenal vs Crystal Palace Prediction — GW28 Score & Win Probability