Who will win Aston Villa vs Liverpool?
— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.
AVL goals down, LIV goals across
| AVL ↓ | LIV 0 | LIV 1 | LIV 2 | LIV 3 | LIV 4 | LIV 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVL 0 | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| AVL 1 | 6.1% | 13.0% | 9.0% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| AVL 2 | 4.9% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| AVL 3 | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| AVL 4 | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| AVL 5 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.8%.
Aston Villa v Liverpool
Onside's model gives Aston Villa a 36% chance of beating Liverpool in Gameweek 18, with 28% on the draw and 36% on an away win. The score prediction is Aston Villa 1–2 Liverpool, from expected goals of 1.32 to 1.55. Every Onside prediction is recorded before kickoff and graded in public.
Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts
Model updated from 60 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.
Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.
Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates, first results from GW1 (21 Aug).