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Wed 30 Dec · 19:30 UK · GW18 · model pl-dc-v2

Crystal Palace v Bournemouth

The Onside model's call for Gameweek 18, from expected goals of 1.22 to 1.73. Recorded before kick-off and graded in public.
CRY win
25%
Draw
26%
BOU win
49%
Score pick
1–2
most likely 1–1
QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Crystal Palace vs Bournemouth?

The Onside model makes Bournemouth the more likely winner of Crystal Palace vs Bournemouth in Gameweek 18: Crystal Palace 25%, draw 26%, Bournemouth 49%. The score pick is Crystal Palace 1–2 Bournemouth, and the single most probable scoreline is 1–1. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

Every scoreline, priced

CRY goals down, BOU goals across

CRY ↓BOU 0BOU 1BOU 2BOU 3BOU 4BOU 5
CRY 06.5%7.7%7.8%4.5%2.0%0.7%
CRY 15.0%12.3%9.6%5.5%2.4%0.8%
CRY 23.9%6.7%5.8%3.4%1.5%0.5%
CRY 31.6%2.8%2.4%1.4%0.6%0.2%
CRY 40.5%0.8%0.7%0.4%0.2%0.1%
CRY 50.1%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (1–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 1.0%.

Your call
AI calls
1–2
Your call
·
–
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locks Wed 19:30 UK
SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS
1.22 — 1.73
★ MODE
1–1
12.3%
1–2
9.6%
0–2
7.8%
0–1
7.7%
2–1
6.7%
OVER 2.5 GOALS
57%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
59%

Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way
Crystal Palace
Attack ranks #14 and defence #19 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.
Bournemouth
Attack ranks #7, defence #11. Expected goals in this fixture: 1.22–1.73.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

GW18 · TEAM NEWS

Predicted line-ups & team news

Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.

Crystal Palace
5-4-1
GK
Benitez
DEF
Mitchell, Richards, Canvot, Khalaili, Disasi
MID
Wharton, Kamada, Yeremy, McNeil
FWD
Strand Larsen
  • Mateta — Suspended until 2 Dec
  • Sarr — Groin injury - Expected back 8 Nov
  • Tomiyasu — Calf injury - Expected back 8 Nov
  • Chadi Riad — Knee injury - Unknown return date
  • Uche — has returned to Getafe CF
  • Strand Larsen 75% — Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
  • Timber 75% — Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL CRY LINE-UP →
Bournemouth
4-5-1
GK
Petrović
DEF
Truffert, Hill, Silva, Smith
MID
Rayan, Tavernier, Adams, Christie, Kluivert
FWD
Evanilson
  • Scott — Thigh injury - Expected back 21 Nov
  • Milosavljević — Thigh injury - Expected back 31 Oct
  • J.Araujo — Thigh injury - Unknown return date
  • Tóth.A — Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
TEAM NEWS SINCE THEIR LAST MATCH

Nothing from the press room yet — pre-match press conferences usually land Thursday or Friday.

FULL BOU LINE-UP →
Think you can beat this call?

Lock your score above before kick-off — every pick is graded 5/3/2/0 against the model and your mates in the prediction league.

THE REVERSE FIXTURE · GW26Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace prediction→All predictionsEvery Premier League match, called by the modelWin probabilities, scorelines and expected goals for the full gameweek — graded in public.VIEW ALL →
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