What is the predicted score for Fulham vs Arsenal?

The model's score pick is Fulham 0–1 Arsenal; the single most probable scoreline is 0–1.

How accurate are Onside match predictions?

Every gameweek we publish log-loss, RPS and accuracy against the bookmaker opening and closing lines at onsidearena.com/api/predict/receipts — the model is evaluated walk-forward with no hindsight.

Wed 30 Dec · 19:30 UK · GW18 · model pl-dc-v2

Fulham v Arsenal

The Onside model's call for Gameweek 18, from expected goals of 0.65 to 1.59. Recorded before kick-off and graded in public.

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FUL win

22%

Draw

32%

ARS win

46%

Score pick

0–1

most likely 0–1

QUICK ANSWER

Who will win Fulham vs Arsenal?

The Onside model makes Arsenal the more likely winner of Fulham vs Arsenal in Gameweek 18: Fulham 22%, draw 32%, Arsenal 46%. The score pick is Fulham 0–1 Arsenal, and the single most probable scoreline is 0–1. This prediction is timestamped before kick-off and is never revised afterwards.

— Onside (onsidearena.com), predictions graded in public.

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FUL 22%

DRAW 32%

ARS 46%

Every scoreline, priced

FUL goals down, ARS goals across

FUL ↓	ARS 0	ARS 1	ARS 2	ARS 3	ARS 4	ARS 5
FUL 0	12.0%	15.6%	13.5%	7.1%	2.8%	0.9%
FUL 1	5.6%	12.3%	8.7%	4.6%	1.8%	0.6%
FUL 2	2.3%	3.6%	2.8%	1.5%	0.6%	0.2%
FUL 3	0.5%	0.8%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%
FUL 4	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
FUL 5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

The engine’s scoreline probabilities — the joint chance of each exact score from the same expected-goals model behind the win call above. The outlined cell is the single most probable score (0–1); scores with either side on 6+ goals sum to 0.6%.

Your call

Fulham

Arsenal

AI calls

0–1

Your call

–

locks Wed 19:30 UK

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · ONSIDE MODEL

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

0.65 — 1.59

★ MODE

0–1

15.6%

0–2

13.5%

1–1

12.3%

0–0

12.0%

1–2

8.7%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

39%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

39%

Model updated from 90 played matches. Scorelines computed from Onside's match model. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

Why the model leans this way

Fulham

Attack ranks #18 and defence #10 of 20 on Onside's xG-based ratings, with home advantage worth ×1.10 on goal rate.

Arsenal

Attack ranks #4, defence #1. Expected goals in this fixture: 0.65–1.59.

Ratings are fitted on three seasons of expected goals with time decay, refreshed after every match, and blended with the betting market where prices exist (pl-dc-v2). Availability of key attackers adjusts goal rates before kickoff.

GW18 · TEAM NEWS

Predicted line-ups & team news

Each XI is picked from who started the club's last five matches, in its usual shape. Flags are FPL's, moved ahead of FPL where a newer club press conference or the Premier League injury list says so. Clubs name the real XI an hour before kick-off.

Fulham

4-5-1