FINALEast Rutherford · MetLife Stadium

Spain

ROUTE HERE

bt Austria 3-0

bt Portugal 1-0

bt Belgium 2-1

5/5OF THEIR GAMES CALLED

Argentina

ROUTE HERE

bt Cape Verde 3-2 (AET)

bt Egypt 3-2

bt Switzerland 3-1 (AET)

6/6OF THEIR GAMES CALLED

The last match of the tournament. Winner lifts the World Cup at MetLife Stadium.

QUICK ANSWER

Spain vs Argentina Final prediction — World Cup 2026

Onside's model gives Spain a 63% chance of going through in the Final between Spain and Argentina. Spain 63% · Argentina 37%. Most likely scoreline: Spain 1-0 Argentina. These are ADVANCEMENT probabilities — a knockout tie cannot end level, so the draw is resolved through extra time and penalties rather than left hanging. Match # 104 at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford.

FINAL · MATCH 104

MODEL · ESP 50%EAST RUTHERFORD19 Jul UTC

Spain vs Argentina prediction

The Onside AI Monte Carlo simulator's verdict on the Spain vs Argentina Final fixture. Probabilities refresh every 10 minutes.

SPAIN

63%

ARGENTINA

37%

TO ADVANCE · INCLUDES EXTRA TIME & PENALTIES

SCORELINE DISTRIBUTION · BIVARIATE POISSON

Top 5 likely scorelines · model receipts

EXPECTED GOALS

0.94 — 0.84

★ MODE

0–0

18.5%

1–1

14.9%

1–0

14.2%

0–1

12.6%

2–0

7.4%

OVER 2.5 GOALS

26%

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

36%

Model updated from 3 played matches. Scorelines computed from the model's bivariate Poisson with low-score (Dixon-Coles) correction. The mode is the single most likely result; the full grid sums to 100%.

SPAIN · PL STARS

1.David RayaArsenal
2.Pedro PorroSpurs
3.Marc CucurellaChelsea

ARGENTINA · PL STARS

1.Emiliano MartínezAston Villa
2.Lisandro MartínezMan Utd
3.Cristian RomeroSpurs

QUICK FACTS · MODEL OUTPUTS

Spain vs Argentina World Cup 2026 prediction

Onside's model gives Spain 50%, draw 22%, and Argentina 28% in the Final — Spain favoured. Every call is publicly graded after full-time on the model record.

Spain vs Argentina score prediction

The model leans Spain by a single goal; knockout fixtures compress, so expect a tight 1-0 or 2-1 rather than a blowout. Over-2.5-goals probability sits near 59%.

Spain vs Argentina Final — when & where

Final fixture at East Rutherford, kickoff Sun 19 Jul, 19:00 UTC. Model anchors: FIFA rank (ESP #2 vs ARG #3), confederation, and live form learned from this tournament's results.

Spain vs Argentina line up

Probable XIs and confirmed lineups land at the match centre as soon as managers release them — typically ~1 hour before kickoff. Onside's player-projection engine pre-computes the most-likely scoring threats per side from current tournament form.

FAQ · Spain vs Argentina

Who is the favourite to win Spain vs Argentina Final?

Spain is the model's favourite to advance, at 63%. Spain 63% · Argentina 37%. These are advancement probabilities: a knockout tie cannot end level, so the draw is resolved through extra time (where the stronger side has the edge) and penalties (which are a coin flip).

When and where is Spain vs Argentina?

Spain face Argentina at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, kickoff Sunday 19 July at 19:00 UTC.

What's the predicted score for Spain vs Argentina?

The model's most likely scoreline is Spain 1-0 Argentina (expected goals 0.9 v 0.8). Note this is the most likely DECISIVE scoreline: a knockout tie cannot end in a draw, so we do not quote one. Knockout football is tighter than the raw expected goals imply — expect a narrow margin, and a real chance of extra time.

Where can I see the model's accuracy?

Live receipts at /world-cup-2026/model-record. Every settled prediction is graded with a Brier-style scorecard so the model's accuracy is publicly auditable.

Spain →Argentina →Pick the score →Full bracket →